Diplomacy

For a very long time, the State Department has been on the losing end of a turf war.  For all the prestige of the Secretary of State,* the department is nowhere near as large or as organized as the Pentagon, which has used that advantage to great effect in the shaping of US foreign policy.  The White House too has evermore increased its role in foreign affairs, further squeezing out State.  Therefore, despite the allure of the State Department (so much so that it is simply referred to as “Foggy Bottom”, referring to the DC neighborhood where it is located), the truth is that its influence is not what it once was.

When Hillary Clinton was named Secretary of State, this waning influence was a concern of hers, especially as she believes in the importance of diplomacy.  She agreed to take the position only if the President gave her a direct line to him.  Although there are still turf skirmishes with the Pentagon, things are generally better in the Obama Administration.  It’s not that Foggy Bottom has become as organized or as competent as the Pentagon, but the two organizations work much better together. In large part this is because Robert Gates, the previous Secretary of Defense, shared the belief with Clinton that diplomacy is important, and he supported good relations with the State Department.  Contrast that to the last administration where Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney (himself a former Defense Secretary) were often bitterly at odds with the Secretary of State–first Colin Powell and then Condoleezza Rice.**

There are understandable reasons why State and Defense would be at odds, merely beyond the egos of the people in charge.  In a sense, State and Defense have oppositional outlooks out of necessity.  The Defense Department cannot afford to make mistakes lest tragedy occur while diplomacy between nations is an ongoing process full of pitfalls and setbacks.  It is also easier to see the Defense Department in terms of black and white or good and evil depending on the eye of the beholder.  This reductiveness overlapped very nicely with George W. Bush’s own dichotomous view of the world–a view that ominously is shared and espoused by the current crop of Republican candidates for President and the Tea Party base.  In contrast, diplomacy is made up of shades of gray; it is complicated and time-consuming and full of compromises.  Good and evil are replaced by costs and benefits, which is not always pretty.  (Americans also tend to love their troops and hate their politicians who are akin to diplomats because diplomacy occurs in the political sphere.  Guilt by association.)

Back to Hillary Clinton.  I have already expressed my appreciation for her speech about LGBT rights, and there have been some incredible diplomatic victories for the State Department.  First, there was the Armenia-Turkey accord from 2009.  Second, and probably most notable, was the fact that she was the force behind the successful intervention in Libya (success of course being the overthrow of Gaddafi, whatever comes next remains to be seen).  While the Pentagon wanted to stay out of the conflict, Clinton forcefully advocated for humanitarian intervention, a logical followup to her husband’s successful intervention in the Balkans and failed intervention in Somalia.  Through Clinton’s efforts, the State Department pioneered the use of social media and smart power in political relations.  Clinton became the face of the US response to the Arab Spring–for better or for worse only time will tell.

To my mind, the most unlikely achievement of Clinton’s State Department is the apparent transformation in Myanmar (Burma).  One of the earliest posts in this blog was about Myanmar and the end of Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest.  That, it turned out, was the initial step in what has tidal waved into seemingly real democratic reforms.  Aung San Suu Kyi herself will stand for parliamentary elections, an indication that she too believes these reforms to be genuine.  Last month Clinton visited Myanmar, and, following the pardon and release of over 600 prisoners (at least some political prisoners) two days ago, formal diplomatic ties between the United States and Myanmar are about to be reestablished with an exchange of ambassadors.  As the Myanmar government continues to reform, more diplomatic ties will be restored or created.

It is hard to determine exactly why Myanmar is reforming.  Despite Western sanctions, Myanmar has not exactly been hurting.  Neither China nor India, two major allies, have cared much about the Myanmar government’s human rights record.  Nevertheless, Myanmar has been taking steps to create and a legitimate democratic process favored by the West.  For this, I believe that at least a little bit of credit belongs to the State Department.***  Since Obama and Clinton took over, diplomacy has been used as the first resort rather than the last.  It is true that often the Administration’s diplomacy efforts badly failed (e.g., Iran, Syria, North Korea), but at least diplomacy was tried.  In the carrot and stick diplomacy.  The United States looks far more reasonable and agreeable than under the with-us-or-against-us outlook of the Bush 43 Administration,† and other nations are more willing to follow where the United States leads if diplomacy is tried first.  Clearly the Myanmar government responded to such diplomatic persuasion; the carrot was good enough even if Myanmar did not fear the stick.

Whether Myanmar stays on this path or reverts back to military dictatorship remains to be seen.  Presumably, Aung San Suu Kyi is not going anywhere any time soon, and she will remain both leader and symbol to so many of her countrymen.  She will also continue to be the beacon that the West focuses on.  The Myanmar government will continue to work with her if it wants the benefits of friendship with the West.

I am hopeful.  Myanmar seems to be taking the right steps.  Just as the world is full of dictatorships, it is also full of former dictatorships and juntas that became democracies.  Hopefully the latter is Myanmar’s future.

Finally, Clinton begins a tour of four African nations this week where she will emphasize nation building, economic development, good governance and democratization.  Her stops include Togo, the Ivory Coast, Cape Verde and Liberia.  In the latter nation, she will attend the inauguration of Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf who, following her Nobel, won a second term as Liberian President.  The elections were not always pretty; there was some violence, and the run-off was plagued by low voter turnout and a boycott by the opposition party.  Nevertheless, outside observers judged the elections to be free, transparent, and fair.  In a country that until just recently was plagued by violent civil war, to have a second consecutive relatively peaceful and transparent election is progress.

Footnotes:  

* Secretary of State is one of the big four Cabinet positions, along with the Secretaries of Defense and Treasury and the Attorney General.  These were the original four positions in George Washington’s Cabinet (sort of; the Secretary of Defense was preceded by the Secretary of War), and the first Secretary of  State was none other than Thomas Jefferson.  The Secretary of State is also the first Cabinet Secretary in the line of Presidential succession.

**  Three of the last four Secretaries of State (Clinton, Rice, and Madeleine Albright) have been women.  On one hand this would appear to be a good thing, a progressive sign that it is not only okay that the chief diplomat of the United States is female, it is almost expected.  (The fourth, Colin Powell, is a black man.)  On the other hand, two positions of more authority, the Defense Secretary and the White House Chief of Staff, have been held only by white men.  I just thought this was interesting.

***  Cabinet secretaries are generally chosen for their political ties rather than expertise.  They are politicians, administrators, and bureaucrats who determine policy but generally lack the specialized experience of career employees (Stephen Chu at the Department of Energy being an exception).  Often they are selected as a way to repay political favors or to make a statement of policy intent.  Clinton is actually a very good choice as Secretary of State.  Through her experience as First Lady, Senator, and Presidential candidate, she has acquired a breadth of  foreign policy experience (if not depth) that makes her uniquely suited for the position.

†  I am always amazed by Obama’s critics on the left who criticize his foreign policy because generally they apply the same good/evil world view and “us against the world” mentality of the Bush Administration.  Positive proof that stupidity knows no political party.

Burma and the Moral Universe

Martin Luther King (paraphrasing Theodore Parker) said, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”  I have been thinking about this idea since the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.  This quote is extremely Christian in its outlook, as befitting an idea originated by and recreated by two Protestant ministers.  Not being a Christian, and being a cynical pessimist, I think that King and Parker are extremely generous toward the moral universe.

I last heard the quote applied to LGBT rights.  The speaker’s intended meaning was that the United States will eventually embrace full LGBT rights despite the many setbacks of the past two years.  While I have hope for LGBT rights, it seems more often than not the arc of the moral universe bends toward injustice.  I fear that Burma will prove this fatalism correct.

Two days ago, Aung San Suu Kyi was released from her years-long house arrest by the military junta that controls Burma (and renamed the country Myanmar.)  This is not the first time she was released.  Nor has the junta treated her as brutally as it has treated other political prisoners.  This is understandable given that Aung San Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and is the focus of international attention and adoration.  She is undoubtedly a brave woman and a heroic figure comparable to Mandela.  I imagine she sees Mandela and Gandhi as polestars.  Gandhi pioneered non-violent resistance and was instrumental in India’s independence from Great Britain.  Mandela struggled for a free South Africa, and after becoming President, he healed the racial divide instead of exploiting it.  In order to bring democracy to Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi will need to be as great than both of those men and perhaps greater.

Gandhi’s foe was a nation that prided itself on its adherence to the rule of law.  Gandhi, a London-trained barrister, spoke that language and to the underlying ideals.  Moreover, however domineering an imperialist power Great Britain was, it was also a democracy.  The government answered to the people.  Gandhi, in addition to being an inspiring figure, was a master of his public image.  His persona helped sway the British public, which was tiring of its empire after two destructive world wars.

Mandela’s foe, the apartheid government of South Africa, was brutal and repressive.  However, Mandela had the international community on his side.  South Africa was not only politically and economically isolated, it was also culturally isolated.  South Africa was banned from most international sporting events.  South Africa saw (and sees) itself as a Western nation, and ultimately could not resist Western isolation forever.

Aung San Suu Kyi faces equally perilous circumstances but far differently.   George Orwell correctly criticized Gandhi for, among other reasons, the inability to understand that non-violence cannot defeat totalitarianism.  It is impossible to bring outside attention to your plight (the goal of non-violence) if you disappear in the night and never return.  The Russians learned that the hard way, as did the Cambodians and Argentinians to name some examples.  Despite her talk of reconciliation and working together, Aung San Suu Kyi is staring down a totalitarian regime.  The Burmese junta does not respect law and does not care about its people.  Nor does the junta, unlike South Africa, care what the West thinks.  Although the economic sanctions from the West may sting, Burma has two very powerful allies who alleviate the pain of sanctions and who will mitigate further international interference.  China supports the junta.  This is unsurprising given that China backs a number of murderous regimes: North Korea, Sudan, its own.  Disappointingly, and ironically, India also supports the junta.  The nation founded out of Gandhian non-violence now enables one of the most violent regimes on the planet.

Why do China and India do this?  Burma is an exporter of natural gas and precious and semi-precious stones.  China and India are in the process of surpassing the Western powers.  Therefore China and India will support dictators, tyrants, and juntas to ensure friendly regimes–a tactic they learned from those same Western powers.  After all, what do the people of Burma matter (or of Iran, or Sudan, or Chile, or Poland, or Hungary, or Mexico, or the Jews, or the Africans, etc. etc. etc.) to an ascending world power?

This is Aung San Suu Kyi’s dilemma.  Even if she succeeds (and at 65, that is far from certain) she will face uncertainties that even Mandela did not.  She will have to juggle the interests of the two world powers next door–the two largest populations in the world.  Who is to say that India or China will respect her democratic government if she favors the West–or one over the other?

Nevertheless, maintaining a successful government is not Aung San Suu Kyi’s immediate problem.  That is a challenge I suspect she would welcome.  After years of imprisonment, she may not even have enough Burmese support to challenge the junta.  The junta let her free not because she was too great a threat to them, but because they no longer see her as such (or so the American news articles say.)  Should she become such a threat, the junta has shown it has no objections to simply putting her back under house arrest.  Moreover, Aung San Suu Kyi cannot depend on international support to aid her cause.  The corporate media is incapable of focusing on one story, even a story as important as this.  A day after her release, Aung San Suu Kyi is already yesterday’s news.

King and Parker would probably say that even if Aung San Suu Kyi does not live to see her dreams come to fruition eventually democracy, or some form of just governance, will come to Burma.  However, historical results, to be kind to King and Paker, are mixed.  Too often a former colony exchanges its imperial government for a weak democracy that is overthrown by the military that is replaced by a kleptocracy.  All the while, the populace suffers.  Parts of South America have gotten better, most of Africa is still a disaster.  The former Soviet republics have had varying degrees of success, but even for the most successful of these states fear the foreboding shadow of the Kremlin.  Beyond the political struggles, climate change will ravage the poor countries while the wealthier ones refuse to take any preventative measures.

The moral universe bends toward justice for those who can afford justice.  For smaller, poorer nation like Burma, I suspect that Chinese and Indian money will not be spent on humanity.

Music my computer randomly played while I wrote this post: Dmitri Shostakovich “Prelude and Fugue #6 in B Minor, Op. 87″; Igor Stravinsky “Scenes de Ballet” Variation (Ballerine); Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers “Islands in the Stream”; the Beatles “Wait”; the Beatles “I Me Mine”; Kelis “Milkshake”;  Johann Sebastian Bach “Chromatic Fantasia & Fugue in D Minor, BWV 903″; Etta James “Misty”; Ludwig van Beethoven “Variations On A Waltz By Diabelli, Op.120″ Var. 28; Aaron Copland “Rodeo” Hoe-Down; Gaetano Donizetti “Lucrezia Borgia” Brindisi (It segreto per esser felici) sung by Ernestine Schumann-Heink;  George Frederic Handel “Water Music Suite # 2 in D HWV 349″ Menuet 1 & 2″; Achinoam Nini “Nesayon; Robert Johnson “Ramblin’ On My Mind” (Alternate Take); Eric Clapton”Hello Old Friend”; Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart “Piano Concerto # 27 in B Flat, K 595″ Larghetto” Stan Getz and Joao Gilberto (and Astrud Gilberto) “The Girl From Ipanema”; Charlie Parker and his Orchestra “Star Eyes”; Gyorgi Ligeti “Chamber Concerto” Presto; John Denver “Singing Skies and Dancing Waters”; Ella Fitzgerald “I’m Beginning to See the Light”; Enya “The Longships”; the Beatles “She Came in Through the Bathroom Window”; Dmitri Shostakovich “Symphony No. 14, Op. 135″ O Del’vig, Del’vig!;  Roberta Flack “Tryin’ Times”.